In some ways, the Eagles and New York Giants come into their Week 3 matchup at The Linc with similar strengths and weaknesses.
Both defenses boast fearsome front fours, while Jim Schwartz and Steve Spagnuolo are scheming around key injuries in the secondary. Both offenses are looking to get the running game on track to varying degrees, while Carson Wentz and Eli Manning have been hit early and often.
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And yet, it feels like the two NFC East rivals are trending in two opposite directions. Most of the Eagles’ problems seem fixable compared to what the Giants are dealing with. For instance, nobody on Philly radio pressed the panic button this week, much less ranted and raved about middle school geometry while discussing the state of the offensive line.
@DonLagreca at his finest. reset his rant count. @RealMichaelKay @TMKSESPN @TMKSonYES pic.twitter.com/PmlkIMawBi
— David Santana (@dsantana310) September 19, 2017
“A lot of people are counting us out and so be it,” Ben McAdoo told New York reporters this week. “But we hold ourselves to a high standard in this building and we got a great challenge this week. And we’re looking forward to it.”
The math is the math, and people are counting out the Giants for good reason. Since 1990, when the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format, only 12 percent of teams that started 0-2 have made the postseason. Teams that fell to 0-3 are 3-for-132 (2.3 percent).
Across the board this week, Eagles players have been purposely uncontroversial. “We’ve just got to do us,” Brandon Graham said. But they’re aware of the high stakes in this 2017 home opener. Not only can the Birds improve to 2-0 in the NFC East, they could also provide an early knockout blow to a rival that many predicted would make the playoffs for a second straight year.
Offensive matchup to watch: Eagles left guard vs. Steve Spagnuolo
Janoris Jenkins is questionable with an ankle injury, and without his top corner last week against Detroit, Spagnuolo blitzed a tad less than in Week 1 against Dallas. Whether it’s Chance Warmack or Isaac Seumalo starting at left guard on Sunday, expect the Giants to try to create confusion.
Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich talked about the Giants’ tricky pressure package this week.
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“They do a good job of presenting a similar presentation and have multiple looks off of it, safeties do a very good job of disguising,” Reich said. “They’ll be all the way down one way and kick back the other way. They make a lot of things look the same. They’ll give you a pressure look and bail out.”
Shot 1 – #Giants not afraid to send pressure. Landon Collins sacked Wentz on this exact blitz last yr. He's a big part of their pressure pkg pic.twitter.com/VDP5ozXjhK
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) September 21, 2017
Landon Collins got to Carson Wentz once last year (as you can see above, thanks to Fran Duffy of PhiladelphiaEagles.com), and according to Football Outsiders, the Giants were first in the NFL in the percentage of sacks from defensive backs in 2016.
The Jenkins injury might force Spagnuolo to take a more conservative approach, but the combination of the Giants’ scheme and personnel — Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul are a handful, and Damon Harrison is simply no fun to run up the middle against — could make life difficult on whoever lines up at left guard.
Defensive matchup to watch: Giants offensive line vs. Eagles front four
Bucks County native Justin Pugh will likely slide over to right tackle for the injured Bobby Hart, and while that looked like an upgrade against Detroit, it also means more shuffling inside for a Giants offensive line that has been a disaster thus far. It would be easy to single out the struggling Ereck Flowers at left tackle, but the Eagles can create havoc across the line of scrimmage.
For example, Pugh might do a better job against Brandon Graham and Chris Long, but that in theory should mean easier matchups for Fletcher Cox and Tim Jernigan inside.
“We’ve got to be the one to throw the first punch and get the fans involved,” Cox said.
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Four downs
1. Changing it up? Doug Pederson is often asked about the challenge of balancing both head coaching and play-calling duties, a setup the Giants also have with McAdoo. And while Pederson has been hit with questions about the Eagles’ pass-run ratio over the past week, the Giants have been so inept that McAdoo is considering handing over the play-call duties to offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan.
McAdoo admitted that he’s looking at the situation “week-by-week.” So, what does that mean exactly?
“Well, we look at everything, and if we need to use that and switch that up as a way to jump-start the offense, we’ll do it,” McAdoo said.
The second-year head coach has called the plays for Giants for three seasons, so it’s a bit of a surprise that he would consider making a change this quickly into the season.
“We can’t keep doing the same thing over and over again. That’s insanity,” McAdoo told the New York Daily News. “It’s not working, so we’re going to look to make some more changes this week like we did last week. Maybe a little more drastic.”
2. Thin in the secondary: Safeties Corey Graham and Jaylen Watkins are both out against the Giants with hamstring injuries. Starter Rodney McLeod is also having hamstring issues, but he’s questionable for Sunday after practicing some on Friday.
“They don’t pay me to ease the concerns of the masses, but I can assure one thing, that we’ll go out and compete on Sunday,” Jenkins said this week. “And that’s the biggest thing. Whoever we put out there is going to play hard and prepare hard throughout the week. And we’ll be ready to play.
“Will it be perfect? It’s never perfect. But we’re going to play hard, and we have faith in the guys we’re putting out there.”
Injuries happen to everyone in the NFL, but with Ron Darby already out, the Eagles are hurting quite a bit in the secondary. If McLeod can’t go, Schwartz would have to insert special teams ace Chris Maragos or get creative (LB Kamu Grugier-Hill?) at safety.
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3. Eli and the blitz: Schwartz almost never blitzed Manning (6 of 100 dropbacks, per PFF) in the two games against the Giants last season. And when he did, Eli lit the Eagles up: 5-for-5, 85 yards, a touchdown and one sack.
Earlier this week, the Eagles defensive coordinator talked a bit about why Manning was successful. Basically, he wasn’t giving them a chance to adjust.
“I don’t want to get too much into specifics, but last year in particular, he was calling just about everything at the line of scrimmage,” Schwartz said. “And it was a spread set, a lot of three wide receiver sets, and in order for you to blitz, you’ve got to declare, and he changed the play with five seconds left on the play clock.”
If the Giants stick with three-receiver sets (more on that below), the guess here is that Schwartz will continue to lean on his front four to generate a pass rush.
4. Odds and ends: Dating back to last year, the Giants haven’t scored over 20 points in their last eight games… The Eagles have won five of their last six games against the Giants, including the last three at The Linc… Just like Gordon Bombay struggled in Mighty Ducks: D2, the Giants are 0-2 since McAdoo elected to go with the slicked back haircut.
Sticking to the plan
The Giants’ offense against the Eagles’ defense provides a matchup of two units that stuck to a particular style in 2016. According to Football Outsiders, the Giants lined up in 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) way more than any other team. New York went with 11 personnel on 92 percent of its snaps, while the next-highest team was at 76 percent.
Playing 11 personnel with talented rookie Evan Engram at tight end means there often isn’t much help for the offensive line, which as we’ve gone over, the Giants could kind of use. It was interesting that Manning was advocating for more two tight end looks this week.
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“You’ve got to mix up your personnel. We don’t want to get into that world of being in one personnel,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Birds ranked first in the NFL in how much they brought four pass-rushers under Schwartz in 2016.
Predictions
Sheil Kapadia: Eagles 27, Giants 17
I hate to go with the obvious, but this is a game that the Eagles’ defensive line should dominate. What will be interesting is what they do from a coverage standpoint. Will Schwartz be aggressive with his corners and try to force Manning to hold the ball? Or will he play it more conservative and instruct the defensive backs to just keep everything in front of them? Usually, when the fan base is this confident about a game, disaster strikes. But I’m going to say this is the exception.
Bo Wulf: Eagles 16, Giants 14
Another uneven offensive performance in which Wentz is the better quarterback. Chance Warmack is a disaster, and Jake Elliott misses a PAT. The Eagles only sack Manning twice because four intentional groundings go uncalled. The dreaded left guard controversy subsumes the city of Philadelphia.
Rich Hofmann: Eagles 20, Giants 13
Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t quite an “Eagle Killer” yet with averages of 6.8 catches for 87.5 yards per game in six contests, but the amount of stress he could put on the Eagles’ banged-up secondary might swing this game. Unfortunately for the Giants, OBJ didn’t look close to 100 percent last week. I see New York’s defense generating good pressure on Wentz, but the Eagles ultimately getting better, more efficient pressure on Manning.
